As officialdom in European capitals and Washington tries to discern Russian intentions on an invasion of Ukraine, speculation by observers in and out of government runs the gamut. What will Putin do? Why is he doing it? And why is he doing it now?
Conventional wisdom—fed by relentless rhetoric out of Moscow—says Russia is fed up with being ignored on NATO expansion, on military “infrastructure,” and on missiles at Russia’s border. It’s all part of an effort to prevent Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
This is fodder for armchair warriors and strategists, and the media rushing to give them airtime. It also presents Western politicians the chance to show their war-averting diplomatic skills to a domestic audience, even they’re fully aware of the limited leverage vis-à-vis Putin.
But do the many explanations and predictions miss a more elementary point? Putin is no ordinary head of state. He has a record of making sure that people he deems a threat end up dead, be they Russian or not. It’s about signals, every thug’s coercive weapon of choice.
Two other qualities mark the thug: revenge and spite. In February 2014, as a result of Euromaidan, Putin’s man in Kyiv, President Yanukovich, fled to Russia. Subsequently, freely elected Ukrainian governments indicated a preference for liberal democracy.
Putin was never going to forget or accept this. In March 2014, he invaded and annexed Crimea. At the same time, he invaded the Donbas in support of a pro-Russian insurrection there. And in 2020, he published his manifesto the gist of which is: Ukraine’s sovereignty is contingent on Russian approval.
The sanctions that an invasion—whatever form it takes—will trigger for crucial sectors of the Russian economy won’t deter Putin, regardless of their adverse impact. The bigger objective is the two-part grudge: the demise of the USSR and true Ukrainian independence.
As a KGB officer who watched up close the disintegration of East Germany and then the USSR, an out-of-Russia’s-orbit Ukraine remains a personal grievance, not a national security or even geopolitical question. Putin must whack Ukraine … because he can.
