Russian claims about the national security threat posed by Ukraine and even NATO are absurd. Alas, the Western press looks to compete in the absurdity stakes through speculation over Putin’s intentions.
When will Putin decide to invade Ukraine? Has he decided already? If he hasn’t, what can/should the West do to get him to decide in favor of negotiation rather than military force? And why is he doing this now?
Newsflash: Putin has decided what to do to Ukraine, likely long ago. If invasion (however defined) is in the cards, all that’s missing is the final Go! order to the Russian military in place on the border with Ukraine.
One thing we don’t know is what form the assault will take. But it’s hard to imagine that Russia’s military was asked to haul much of an entire army across ten time zones only to have it exercise and go back where it came from.
The other thing we don’t know is exactly when the assault will begin. The provocations and cyber-attack elements are, of course, in full swing. But when the main event begins depends entirely on Putin.
Ultimately, the decision-making, like the crisis itself, is the creation of a single person. That person operates on a deep-seated grudge about the demise of his beloved USSR and the 2014 defenestration of his man in Kyiv, Yanukovich.
Putin used his 2020 manifesto on Ukraine and its history to legitimize that very personal grudge. He is unlikely to see economic sanctions as a deterrent to the only interest that matters to him: the occupation of territory and the use of blunt force to effect it.
